Thereafter Sep,10th.  the production cuts , add demand season, steel price callback of short time after rising trend will continue. In September in a nationwide electricity, the effects of restricting output agitation makes every skip 44 points rebar futures and spot price mainly with the effects of restricting output, just two days more rise namely 400 yuan/ton, but failed to withstand demands for price, stock price rose after beginning present slide steel rebar main trend, also a contract also continue days. But this is just a temporary scene, with power brownouts, effects of restricting output in advance, the futures price in short time rebar callback, will continue rising trend.
Power brownouts, effects of restricting output will promote steel price upward
This is the "11th five-year" plan last year, "11th five-year" plan for the purpose of saving energy drop 20% of GDP unit. State department figures, calculation of 2006-2009 China unit GDP energy 2.74% decline, identify, and 3.61% 5.20% -5.04 % this year in August, bureau of data shows that the country unit GDP energy, year-on-year, 0.09 percent by 2010, second unit GDP energy must decline, the second half of energy conservation and emission reduction pressure 5.1 grand.
For the purpose to smooth finish ambassadors emission, the state council has ordered all six DuChaZu composed, to reflect high priority will be preferential policies of electricity enterprise of product for liquidation, special power supervisory audit, implement and execute punish price difference of electricity, etc. For this year's energy conservation and emission reduction is not even want to finish, plus center on the 11th "five-year" plan energy-saving purpose, beginning to feel to sacrifice GDP, complexity of second power brownouts measures and punish sex for a month in jiangsu province electricity, rules of 28 days can only produce 18 days, continue to the end of October, and steel and zhongtian shagang, steel enterprises are executive power brownouts measures were divided, productivity levels. Local region also closed local furnace, ningbo steel recently closed a 2500 cubic meters of the blast furnace. On September 4th, hebei wwan steel received within its jurisdiction, 18 steel blast furnace, steel wire is produced in 5 0 points before closing time temporarily shut, full 20 days to a month. 6th, hebei tangshan issued documents, tangshan regional 9-12 months of steel production amount will be temperate in 356 tons annual output within 2010 will temperance in 6750 tons. And the steel output of tangshan areas for 7064 tons. This means that, in this area tangshan steel during the first half of the specific situations release capacity, arrived at the annual amount of 4% reduction. According to relevant calculation and estimate, the provinces of power brownouts method can affect steel output 2570 tons. Currently, shanxi, anhui, fujian, yunnan and northeast don't understand, but later can also gradually open.
Stocks continue for 16 weeks, capital support effect is still strong
High stock has been down prices, but the price of steel, steel in May start to inventory is beginning of process, according to data shows, September 3, social inventory has continued rebar 16 weeks. On May 14, from the 661.52 tons, September 3, cut to the 566.07 tons, cut 95.45 tons, the decline of 14.4 percent. Stock price dropped to add up space in the future of steel. Other, because of the impact energy saving and emission reduction, and the tendency to stock will accelerate.
Other, capital support effect is strong, although recent original material price, but relatively loose presented the existing steel, iron ore price is still in price, the price of Qingdao 63.5% Indian ore for 1145 yuan/ton, tangshan secondary YeJinJiao price for 1780 yuan/ton, maintain relatively high in, and more importantly, related to produce steel prices and domestic capital is not high.
Domestic steel producer in September hike
On August 16th, baosteel, and angang iron) in the same day on September price policy, the main types of the price hike steel, but rise to a temporary suspension, anshan, the biggest rise in wisco, the two big plant root center for the decrease in August. Baosteel rise, but also a minimum order of preferential, will rise to dark warming up. The mainstream of steel in September price crunch market price cuts of space. On September 1, appearing in early September shagang price policy, in mid-august price policy basis, will raise price rebar 100 yuan/ton, will raise prices and wire screw 70 yuan/ton, which also shows the major steel optimistic view in September, it also makes the steel market to multiply market.
That sex and sex peak season of housing construction demand compensation. Useful
9 and 10 months of the season's steel industry, with traditional building construction, reduce the temperature increases, the steel terminal demand beginning thaw. Other, although the amount of housing land for housing and sex are clear to add, but as long as tianjin, Beijing and jiangsu finished first obligation, big local area, especially the Midwest regional assurance of housing starts with the completion rate is low, but authorities recently I repeat that half of the increase of housing guarantee, and establish the local to finish this year on May 19, and live JianBu sign of housing guarantee task goal responsibility, will be in September and October start up. It will be useful for the compensation policy adjustment of cutting steel, low demand.
Other, "jin jiuyin 10" is the car, data shows, the consumption peak in August, the car sales 121.55 finish, 15.09% increase year-on-year increase compared 55.72% in experience, July after sales bottom, faint early into the hair sold season. Consumption season, plus SuiWei QiaoWei elements in September, the influence of market is still expected to show superior.
Hind look
In September, the contract will be in the main rebar position 4500 1101 short time, follow effects of restricting output capacity that needs to cut and steel rebar peak, will continue to break up, and 47 yuan/ton, but in October, QiJia downward tendency, the first decline by iron ore and coke price. Rio and Japanese steel, iron ore to 4 degrees talks about 13% drop compared price of iron ore price FOB price 4 degrees (excluding freight) will decline to about $127 per ton. CVRD company also revealed performance, plan to sell 4 degrees Japanese steelmaker iron ore price cut 10%, because the domestic demand for iron ore price cuts, 4 degrees, dice is cast down, coke price will also decline, Japanese steelmaker and mining giant BHP billiton achieve peace talks, the coking coal price down 7%, high-grade coking coal price from $225 quarter will be cut to $209. The original material price decline will make the steel capital support effect weakens, prompted the futures price downward into orbit rebar.