The recent decline fierce black industry chain, rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal since going public all hitting a new low. From the technical side, running down along the rebar has dropped below enclosure, continue downward pressure is still large. Fundamentally, the demand of the "golden nine silver ten" release or difficult and expectations, demand side cannot support steel prices rebounded sharply.

Demand into the off-season

Affected by high temperature and rainy weather, recently the downstream procurement limited; Spot and futures as declines in steel prices fell to a low levels of the year, down the tunnel needs wait-and-see mood is aggravating, leading to clinch a deal the shrink further. A line from our survey data also showed that the large steel mills in September orders of growth was not obvious, the demand of the "golden nine silver ten" season or difficult to achieve.

And from the point of real estate data, 1-2014 real estate investment growth of 13.7% in July, was 1 - June slowed 0.37%; July 1 - the total area of new development fell 12.8% year on year, at a June 1 - narrowed by 3.7%; 1 to July, the area of commercial housing sales fell 7.6% year on year, a new low this year. Overall, the real estate investment growth is low, but the new construction must bounce. However, real estate sales area continues to decline, according to preliminary government concentrated on micro stimulus effect still is not significant, the real estate market adjustment pressure is still large.

Supply release

Bureau of statistics data show that in July, crude steel, pig iron and steel production 68.32 million tons, 59.75 million tons and 59.75 million tons respectively, year-on-year growth of 1.5%, respectively, by 1.5% and 3.7%; Crude steel and steel average daily output of 2.204 million tons and 3.057 million tons respectively, sequential fell by 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Deviation, with China's iron ore imports in July from an increase of 7.95 million tons, 2.8 million tons of iron ore port stocks month-on-month drop, steel mills for iron ore from inventory and domestic ore inventory is also down in the stable. The above data are that iron ore consumption is increased, but July crude steel output dropped sharply, equivalent to the average dropped by 100000 tons, raw materials and timber significant deviation.

And from the point of view we a line of research results, in addition to very few because of their own money problems steel production, the other steel mills are at full capacity production. At the same time, cisa, according to early August crude steel member enterprises daily average of 1.8199 million tons, a 3.6% increase in late July. So we tend to believe that iron ore real consumption data and the aim of cisa's latest data, the current supply release or remains high.

Steel mills did not mean to push

Recent plank enterprises such as baosteel, wisco, angang have issued price policy in September, in addition to wisco hot rolling rise 20 to 40 yuan/ton, three plate manufacturers most mainstream products factory prices are remain the same, according to leading steel mills remain cautious about season plate market. September orders and baosteel said, compared with August off-season, not obvious rise, car plate order still no obvious improvement, this also is they are difficult to raise prices. Construction steel factory is cut in the majority, east shagang, transit and other steel mills to mid-august wire, plate screw factory price cut 30-50 yuan/ton, rebar ex-factory price remains the same, and the contract retroactive to early 30 yuan/ton. A line from our investigation understands, steel mills more than current is give priority to in order to increase the ship lock in profits, and has no intention to take the initiative to push.

Lack of confidence in the market

As of August 15, the thread, wire, medium plate, hot-rolled and cold-rolled varieties of five stock 12.5387 million tons, zhou month-on-month drop of 1.36%, year-on-year growth of 14.80%; Major cities in China rebar inventories of 5.672 million tons, fell 2.28%, year-on-year growth of 9.60%. Steel society further reduce inventory, but, according to the feedback traders will generally help library market at present, low inventory is not the main reason why the price increase, and more just reflects the lack of confidence in the market.

Another from steel factory inventories, plank class business inventories relatively high at present, building materials companies stock is relatively low, at the same time, due to the low season for shipment, rising inventories of some steel mills are relatively early, early August steel stock 14.569 million tons, up 3.4% at the end of July.

Raw material prices weak down

Weak domestic raw material prices fell last week, because of some rolling production enterprise losses in tangshan billet on Tuesday dropped to 2650 yuan/ton, is a new low since 8 years. The iron ore market, platts index (62%) on Friday at $93.75 / ton, week fell $1.25 / ton. According to Mysteel, this week the national 41 main port iron ore inventories for a total of 110.67 million tons 1.22 million tons of month-on-month drop last week. Overall, the current steel production common profit, so the low price of iron ore port purchasing willingness to fair, expected short-term ore prices fall further space is limited.

The current pattern, the yield of steel high, but the downstream shipment, looking forward to the "golden nine silver ten" consumption season or difficult to achieve. From the macro view, despite the government's rescue slogans positive, but the real economy, capital inflows is limited, difficult to stimulate further on demand.

Terms of technique, main thread weeks K line last week in, week position, an increase of 225000 hand under the previous casing running along the has been broken. In conclusion, hong kong-listed is expected to rebound in limited space, shock downward trend remains the same.