After experiencing the ups and downs of 2016, that has acquired a "invulnerability" ability, did not expect the 2017 today is so thrilling. There seems to be a big "bull market" as early as before, only in hindsight, a little.

But on the other hand, nearly 5 years of decline, people have to re-examine the now vulnerable period, strong and long, has a large economic cycle, there are also small periodic surface steel basic changes every year, irrespective of the process of price movements, the ultimate "home" in the relationship between supply and demand level, so for the change of the steel market situation this year than for the periodic study together.

First look at the inventory cycle, the annual Spring Festival 3-4 week is the steel inventories high, then all the way to the inventory, the period until the years have rebounded slightly after re entering the stage of digestion, by the end of the trough into inventory. However, although the cycle is similar, but the absolute value is different, in the 2013-2016 period, the total inventory level gradually declined, with profits in the market improved, the average stock rebounded slightly this year, has reached the level of 2015.

According to the measured data in recent years, years of high and low inventory difference between 33%-54% years and low inventories are low at the end of the inventory by 6%-17%, calculated in accordance with this experience, such as the end of the inventory is still low, then the social inventory may be between 800-860 million tons.

With the consumption of the corresponding inventory, look at investment in fixed assets, and inventory cycle corresponding to the present just negative correlation, although in recent years the amount of fixed assets in the growth rate gradually decreased, but the total is still in the increasing range, and in June for the annual amount of the highest, the second half of the overall investment is higher than that of the other the first half of September, the annual investment of time highs.

In addition, according to the national strategy of maintaining stability, and the first half of the overall performance, this year the total growth rate year-on-year or increased, according to estimates, the amount of growth rate compared to 2016 or 2017 at 8-10% investment in fixed assets, the total amount or around 60 trillion.