With a wave of gains in August, the finished products - threads, pipes, profiles and other basic breakthroughs in the 4000 key, profits are rising, less than 3-500, more than 1000. But the reality is profit bonus, into the steel mill pocket; and traders pocket is still open, so also after the boom of the market buried a heavy pathos foreshadowing. Regardless of is the "True rose", or "inflated", but it is undeniable that the steel industry has been in the 3000 last year, created five years high, 4000 of the price may be high, at least from the current situation of the steel city view, but also more high.

The main driving force behind the current market environment is constantly, mills have been closed in the number, has become the industry norm; visual surface, is the compression capacity, yield, reducing the supply; in the skyrocketing concept, often there will be the rich want to buy products, not ugly. The real phenomenon is the high cost of a market reflected. Go to see the steel, strong trend, make you incredible, has become the industry within the first; the various funds have entered the steel market to participate in the game, rebar futures positions also constantly refresh the historical record. Such as "Hebei province to deal with heavy pollution weather and heating season peak production special plan", which clearly pointed out that the heating season in Shijiazhuang, Handan, Tangshan and other places of iron and steel production 50%. The driving force, the policy is very strong, in the last two years under the suppression of environmental protection, the domestic steel market has been in a tight balance between supply and demand situation, the domestic steel market price is difficult or easy to rise, changes in the supply and demand in the background, the price will naturally become the wind vane.

One thing's for sure, as long as the national capacity to 4000 is determined to remain unchanged, the steel city is still high, later will become the commodity market as the favored products.

The steel industry has reached a high position. Is it going to crash?

First, the time point - "golden nine silver ten", I do not believe, really busy season into an off-season. In accordance with past experience shows that the off-season too Dora rose, has been overdrawn season up and down space, making the season unchanged expectations. But the steel market demand this year is not really the activation, especially the manufacturing industry, the real estate industry, has been tepid, but the market will give the season under some chips, such as home appliances, cars and stimulate real estate sales, which led into the steel market demand season. In addition, the GDP performance in the first, second quarter exceeded expectations, there is no reason to believe that the next third, the fourth quarter remained at around 6.7%. If from the economic growth point of view, in recent years, China's economic growth is steadily increasing. Over the past 8 quarters, China's GDP growth has basically been stable, running between 6.7%-6.9%. China's economic growth is steadily increasing, this is not an accidental phenomenon, according to internal laws and inertia, the second half of China's economy can continue the overall stable situation. And, from the data point of view, at present, China's domestic steel, social stocks and steel inventories are low, indicating that domestic steel production enterprises demand better, smooth shipment.

Second, go ahead - arm manufacturing capacity index ending. From the capacity to see the first half of the year, has completed nearly 80% tasks, the estimated 9-10 month is the time node, mainly to production capacity in many provinces, such as Hebei, Shandong will be completed ahead of the annual goal must be specified in the area, in the 11-12 month exceeded the target. 9 and October is expected to usher in large-scale shut down again, which is completed or exceeded this year, the key to the task of production capacity. As of 2016, the end of October the steel has been completed ahead of schedule to 45 million tons annual production target. One can imagine that 2017 estimates are no exception. By then, if the excess is completed, it is bound to have greater positive impact on market procurement, coupled with the boost in demand for the season, the whole steel market in 9-10 months is still regarded as the best investment target.

Third, a bet on a price rise space - although the finished material broke the 4000, but is still blank about 3000; compared to 2016 last year from more than 1000 to more than 3000, the price doubled this year; pull up space but also 600-1000 only, and is not very prominent. Therefore, the entire steel, if the fundamentals are close to 1000 yuan or more, or in line with expectations. So, although the market will shock, but need time to polish, 9-10 months is the best period of high impact steel city, but also laid the key to this year's high price of steel city.

On the whole, there may be a risk of low inflation in the peak season of September