In 2017 November, the steel industry in Hebei province was 49% PMI, an increase of 3.6%, but still in the line ups and downs.
11月份的新订单指数为55.8%,环比上升7.9%。进入11月钢铁下游行业并未向预期的需求下降方向演变,而是保持稳定态势,企业新订单稳中有升。主要宏观经济指标表现,11月份,中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为51.8%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,制造业继续保持稳中有升的发展态势。10月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.2%,增速比上月回落0.4个百分点,比上年同月加快0.1个百分点。1-10月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)517818亿元,同比增长7.3%,增速比1-9月份回落0.2个百分点。1-10月份,全国房地产开发投资90544亿元,同比增长7.8%,增速比1-9月份回落0.3个百分点,其中住宅投资增长9.9%。10月份,全国服务业生产指数同比增长8.0%,增速比上月回落0.3个百分点,比上年同月加快0.2个百分点。10月份,全国居民消费价格同比上涨1.9%,涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点。10月份,进出口总额22425亿元,同比增长10.2%。其中,出口12485亿元,增长6.1%;进口9940亿元,增长15.9%。进出口相抵,贸易顺差2545亿元。目前看,国内经济状态有升有降,但均在合理区间运行,部分指标小幅回落对整体经济稳中向好格局影响不大,有机构预计,2017年我国GDP(国内生产总值)实际增速为6.8%,较2016年反弹0.1个百分点。
In
November, the new order index was 55.8%, and the ring was up 7.9%. In
November, the downstream iron and steel industry did not change to the
expected demand, but maintained a steady state, and the new order of
enterprises rose steadily. The main macroeconomic indicators show that
in November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was
51.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and the
manufacturing industry continued to grow steadily and steadily. In
October, the industrial added value above the scale of the whole country
increased by 6.2% in real terms, 0.4 percentage points down from last
month, 0.1 percentage points faster than the same month of the previous
year. In the month of 1-10, the national fixed assets investment
(excluding farmers) was 517818 billion yuan, up 7.3% from the same year,
and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the
1-9 month. In the month of 1-10, the national real estate development
investment was 90544 billion yuan, up 7.8%, and the growth rate was 0.3
percentage points lower than the 1-9 month, of which the housing
investment increased by 9.9%. In October, the national service
production index increased by 8% year on year, the growth rate fell 0.3
percentage points from last month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the
same month of the previous year. In October, consumer prices in the
country rose by 1.9% year-on-year, up by 0.3 percentage points from last
month. In October, the total amount of imports and exports was 22425
billion yuan, up 10.2% from the same period. Among them, exports 12485
billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; imports of 994 billion yuan, an
increase of 15.9%. Import and export counterbalance, trade surplus of
254 billion 500 million yuan. At present, the domestic economic status
was up and down, but are in a reasonable range of operation, part of the
index fell slightly on the positive pattern has little effect on the
overall economic stability, the agency expects 2017 China's GDP (GDP)
the actual growth rate of 6.8%, compared with 2016 rebounded 0.1
percentage points.
11月份国内钢材价格再创年内新高,长材表现抢眼。本月采暖季限产措施执行,钢厂如火如荼展开,停工、检修消息充斥市场,但下游似乎影响不大,工程、机械厂等需求行业多正常运营,目前看钢铁需求并未如业内预期降低方向演变,实则出乎意料。毫无悬念,市场在嗅到供需关系近一步紧张,社会、厂内钢材库存一再降低消息不胫而走,为先前纠结市场心态注入强劲动力,由此支撑钢价再次“起飞”。本月最突出的特征为强势品种轮换,市场再次回归“长强板弱”格局,此局面的形成有其必然性,主要是前期钢厂侧重利润更高的板材,供给增加致使板材库存下降缓慢,反而长材生产积极性下降令库存大幅下降,并且下游工地需求好于预期,也为长材再次领涨提供基础动力。12月可关注的点,第一原料市场利空有所出尽,不过基于钢企限产消耗下降产生的实际拖累,原料运行继续弱于成材。第二限产影响下,社会库存持续消化钢市供需关系紧张加剧,近一步支撑钢价。第三年度末,市场资金趋紧为常规发展态势,虽然普遍偏轻的库存,不足以对资金形成重压,但压力依然存在的。第四钢价创新高,中间商需求愈加萎靡,市场反映真实需求下,炒作一去不复返。综合判断,12月份钢价高位运行,新高继续刷新,年终强势收尾。
In
November, domestic steel prices again set a new high in the year, long
timber performance. The implementation of this month heating season
measures to limit production, plant shutdown and overhaul news launched
like a raging fire, flooding the market, but the downstream seems to
have little effect, engineering, machinery factory and other industries
demand for normal operation, at present not as expected to reduce demand
for steel industry in the direction of evolution, unexpected. No doubt,
in the market supply-demand relationship one step closer to smell, in
social tension, steel stocks repeatedly to reduce the news spread like
wildfire, a strong impetus to the previously tangled mentality of the
market, so as to support steel prices again "off". The most prominent
feature of this month is strong variety rotation, the market once again
return to the "long board strong weak pattern, the forming of this
situation has its inevitability, mainly focus on steel sheet pre profit
is higher, resulting in increased supply of sheet stock declined slowly,
but the long material production enthusiasm dropped to stocks fell
sharply, and the downstream site needs better than expected, but also
provide the basic motivation for long material led again. In December,
the first thing to note is that the first raw material market is going
to be bad. But based on the actual drag from the reduction in production
and consumption of steel enterprises, the operation of raw materials
will continue to be weaker. Under the influence of second limited
production, the social stock continued to digest the tension between
supply and demand in steel market, and support steel price in a close
step. At the end of third, market funds tightened to a regular
development trend. Although the general light stock is not enough to
form a heavy pressure on capital, the pressure still exists. Fourth
steel price innovation is high, the middleman demand is becoming more
and more slump, the market reflects the real demand, and the hype will
never return. Comprehensive judgment, the price of steel in December
high operation, the new high continued to refresh, the end of a strong
end.