By the end of 29 th, in December, steel prices went out of the trend of high inflation. The steel composite price index fell 1.05% in the month to month ratio. According to the varieties, the long timber price index dropped by 2.69%, and the flat price index increased 1.03%. The comprehensive price index of iron ore rose by 6%, including the import mine price index rose by 5.13%, the domestic mine price index rose by 7.05%, basically in line with the expected. Looking forward to the steel market in January, although steel prices have continued to adjust the space, but it is expected to stabilise and open the new volatility of the market. 

Back in 2017 the steel market, repeatedly in expectation and reality, the composite steel price index rose 22.3% with the beginning of the year, the annual average price is expected to rise by 43.5%, not only make bearish surprise, we have the end of this year to see more point than expected. The different commodities in the steel industry chain have also shown differentiation, and coal and coke have increased by more than 60%, while Australian iron ore annual prices have risen by only 21.8%. The iron and steel industry has ushered in the return of value for a long time, and the merger and acquisition of the industry has also opened the curtain. Although the profits of enterprises have been significantly improved, the debt rate of the industry is still around 68%. With the development of advanced manufacturing industry in China, the development of iron and steel industry is still a long way to go. 

The steel market outlook 2018, perhaps will usher in The path winds along mountain ridges. 2018 is the steel industry supply side structural reforms continued to force the third years of reform, the future is bound to reduce the price of steel is likely to occur in recent years highs, may also be the next several year high, do not rule out the next time the price drop center. From the year of 2018, this peak is likely to happen in March at the turn of spring and summer, because March 2018 is the most prominent month for supply and demand of steel, especially the contradiction between supply and demand of building materials. Then the steel price theory will have a deep adjustment, forcing supply and demand back to the level of reasonable equilibrium. In the second half of 2018, the price of steel still had a good rebound. In terms of fuel, the price of iron ore may be three low: high point reduction, lower average price and lower low. The price of coal char will still be stronger than iron ore, and the price of waste steel should be the strongest. The profits of the whole steel industry will still be shown. Only the way of driving the development of the industry will change. In the future, it may be more dependent on improving speed and efficiency based on big data marketing, improving quality and efficiency, and reducing the cost and efficiency. 

In January 2018, the price of steel still has the momentum of inertia, mainly from the following aspects: 

The biggest pressure comes from the serious upside down of the price of the spot market and the spot market. Since late December, steel average price index callback 250 yuan, while the December rebar average price index callback nearly 500 yuan, part of steel prices even fell 800-1000, resulting in some steel prices and spot market prices upside down 500-600 yuan, after the new year's day of the steel prices will be substantially reduced, and once the steel prices down, will drive the stock market and the further adjustment of the futures market, which in turn will affect the January 11th steel prices policy, therefore, the author expects January steel prices are still falling in different regions of space, or a little more. 

The second pressure comes from the fall in demand faster than the supply drop. The space of supply fall in January is limited, and the demand has fallen significantly with the further decline in temperature. In December the last 3 weeks of social inventory and steel stocks increased 1 million 20 thousand tons, and steel stocks increased significantly faster than the social stock, according to the projected inventory before the Spring Festival add at least 2 million tons, and in January the steel stocks increased pressure is greater than the stock traders increased pressure probability is very high, therefore, the probability of mills increase in January the price is not high, and for traders, in the context of weaker demand, active price limited confidence. 

The main reason for subsequent support steel prices to stabilize and rebound is mainly: first, the futures price is expected to be the first to rebound, and further enhance the confidence and lead the bottom spot spot rebound. As of December 29th, 1805 screw steel futures prices still discount the spot price of 660 yuan in Shanghai, relative to the national screw steel average price of the greater. So the 01 contracts will be out of the current regression strong shocks in early January two weeks, although the rising space is limited, but it is difficult to fall. While the 05 contract is affected by the expected future growth, it will also enter the time window for building lots and layout. It is not ruled out that after a low point with the price adjustment policy of steel works, it is expected to go out of the upward trend of concussion, and then trigger stabilization or even rebound of spot. Two, the moderate adjustment of the spot price will help to enhance the confidence of the market. This round of steel price adjustment range is close to 10%, which has well released the risk and strengthened the market confidence. Under the expectation of spring rally, the market will do more emotion to curb the drop of space. 

In short, in January, though there was inertia in the steel market, however, with the release of the bad market and the enhancement of market confidence, it is expected to usher in a stable or even rebound in the later stage. We suggest that we should do more in the layout of the steel market.